Thursday, October 26, 2017

These Are Legit Concerns

13 reasons why we're not ready for our motoring future

2. The world's unpredictable

Maarten Sierhuis, director of the Nissan Research Centre, said: 'Reasoning and learning is not simple. From the raw data, we need to perceive the world and understand the obstacles. It's hard [for a machine] to distinguish a human standing still from a lamppost. Then the system needs to predict what the object will do next and what every other object will do.'

Real-world driving involves quick decision making that would require some extremely sophisticated programming. For instance, going through a red light because you've been waved through by a roadworker or a policeman. 'When you drive, how many times do you break the law in traffic? More often than you think.'

Drawing on his experience working with NASA, he believes that you need to keep humans in the loop, supervised by something like air traffic control.

3. Tech can't stop it raining

When it comes to self-driving, there's no hiding place. Either it works or it doesn't. And sensors don't always work. If your car has a reversing camera, you'll know how its performance is reduced by rain or dirt. And poor weather is no friend of digital radio reception. Daimler's Wilko Stark admits: 'Autonomous cars are highly weather dependent. In snow, it doesn't really work.'

10. It's all hugely expensive

For existing car manufacturers, there's going to be a period when they're simultaneously refining their current line-ups of petrol and diesel cars and developing hybrids and full electric cars.

Some visions of the future would also require a lot of road resurfacing, and the installation of charging points at workplaces, in shopping centre car parks, at filling stations and for domestic use. Expect more toll roads and congestion charges. And in-car advertising will be HUGE once cars can drive themselves.

12. We keep buying stuff

Amazon and other online retailers have increased the number of van journeys: in 2016, up by 3.8% to 78.2 billion miles in the UK. The other great users of white vans – plumbers, plasterers, electricians – are also thriving. In both cases, they need to get to your front door, without delay.

The future isn't just about commuting, shopping and leisure use.

13. Car sharing is easier said than done

The case for car sharing is compelling: most cars stand idle most of the time. But implementing it is far from simple. There are two routes: pairing drivers with passengers – a modern form of hitchhiking – and pairing unused cars with carless drivers.

Complete list (CarMagazine.co.uk)

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