President Trump and the sad CAFE
What made today's unpleasant, oversized automotive landscape the way it is? They'll tell you that it was "market forces" but that's a lie. They'll tell you it was "consumer preference" but that's a joke. It was the law. A stupid, inexcusable law called CAFE, which stands for Corporate Average Fuel Economy. It was supposed to make cars more fuel efficient. Instead, it killed them and opened the door for today's "truck"-centric sales landscape. President Obama's actions during his presidency threatened to make that situation permanent—but President Trump has a chance to fix it, if he acts with swift certainty.
CAFE took effect in 1978. In 1979, it mandated a
"fleet average" economy of 19.0 mpg for cars and 17.2mpg for 2WD trucks.
4WD trucks were permitted 15.8. But by 1985, the requirement for cars
had jumped to 27.5mpg while trucks were allowed a combined average of
19.5. Over the next twenty years, this spread stayed more or less the
same. The intent of the law was to recognize the simple realities of
physics: it's much easier to get 27.5mpg out of an Accord than it is to
get the same efficiency from an F-150.
What
broke the system was the introduction of "trucks" that served the same
purpose as cars. Some of them were just trucks with more seats in them:
the 1990 Ford Explorer was really just a Ranger with a cap permanently
welded on. Some were cars that were rebuilt to comply with the letter of
the law, like the PT Cruiser. Others were strange hybrids like the
unibody Cherokee and Grand Cherokee.
No matter
how these "light trucks" came into being, however, they were all
permitted to consume almost half again as much fuel as a standard
automobile. This was a massive competitive advantage. You couldn't get a
V8 in a mid-sized GM or Ford sedan, but you could get one in a Grand
Cherokee or a Land Cruiser.
Forty-one years after CAFE was passed, it's managed to change the
automotive landscape entirely. But instead of creating a world of
efficient commuter cars as its drafters envisioned, the legislation has
managed to turn the American family car into the American family truck.
We are all worse off as a result. Say what you like about "crossovers"
and the like but the fact is that when you turn a car into a truck you
ruin everything from the fuel economy to the handling.
Two weeks ago, the EPA announced that it would
"finalize" its 2025 regulations earlier than expected. This action has
no force of law; it's merely meant to enshrine President Obama's desires
in writing before President Trump takes over. There is no reason that
Mr. Trump could not change these regulations as he desires. Early
indications are that he's not terribly impressed by the EPA in general.
He might choose to lower CAFE targets a bit. He might choose to abolish
them altogether.
I have a different suggestion,
one that will probably manage to enrage both the tree-huggers AND the
red-state conservatives. I think he should set ambitious CAFE goals that
apply to both cars and trucks equally. Instead of 60mpg for cars and
30mpg for trucks, how about 45mpg for everybody? Let's stop playing
favorites and picking winners. There should be one CAFE for everybody.
No comments:
Post a Comment